Monday, February 16, 2009

How I Know, What I Know

You're probably asking yourselves how I know what I believe is going on in Antigua. I don't. But I do. That is nobody has spoken to me, but the numbers have. And here is why:

I established quite clearly in Duck Tales, SIBL has its own particular "business model". Investments, rather than loans. Highly liquid ones, supposedly.

Now if we all go to note 3.7 of SIBL 2007 financials (yes, the "official set"), called "liquidity risk" you will see that of $7.0 billion assets (the last column), $6.3 billion is listed as "up to 1 month assets". That's 90%, children.

What does that mean, boys and girls? Well if they have cash troubles NOW and even have to pull liquidity out of their investments like Transwitch (TXCC) (thanks Peabody...I'd link...but I'm a novice), they have no liquid assets. So figure it out...there's NOTHING (except those penny stocks and piecemeal here and there).

It also follows that it this wasn't a 2008 thing. Even if their portfolio was down 40% this year, according to model, they should have plenty of cash and be able to deal with redemptions.

So, our friends in Antigua are looking at the vault right now, and it's empty. Sorry kids.


  1. How's that Dulce de Lechoza tasting tonight?!

    Hurrah! Bravo Alex!

  2. Thank you Quico. I may have wimped out of Venezuela, but I think I made it up with this.

  3. Good work. Was picked up and followed in Financial Times Alphaville Long Room, and you were noted as the source.